What if the same people who say they feel pessimistic about the economy are the ones driving your next big growth?

You need a clear view of where the market is really moving. Consumers still hold massive spending power, even as many express doubt about the year ahead. That contradiction creates opportunity if your brand adapts.

In this piece you’ll get forward-looking insights on the trends that will shape planning and execution. We map five forces—from social commerce and creator influence to AI personalization, subscriptions, and retail media—that will push how consumers decide and buy.

By the end, you’ll know where to double down and where to pivot so your brands capture real growth in a fast-changing market.

Executive Summary: What Will Reshape Your Growth in 2026

The year ahead favors volume-led plays: more trips, fuller baskets, and faster paths from discovery to purchase.

NIQ data shows consumers have regained behavioral confidence while wallets stay tight. FMCG spend per trip rose about 4% even as items per trip stayed flat. That tells you pricing alone won’t drive growth—volume and relevance will.

Essentials like utilities, health care, housing, and education will keep share of wallet. Discretionary buys will need clear value, convenience, or strong relevance to win.

• Make retail strategies that collapse consideration time and convert quickly.
• Use retail media networks to link creator-led discovery with in-app and in-aisle conversion.
• Lean into AI personalization, but keep data practices transparent to protect trust.

Subscriptions, sharper assortments, private label, and health-at-home offerings will be the levers brands use to stretch limited discretionary budgets and sustain steady growth into the year.

Methodology and Sources for This Trend Report

We combined survey sentiment, transaction records, and platform metrics to produce practical, trackable insights you can act on.

We triangulated NIQ’s Consumer Outlook survey with point-of-sale purchase records and global CPG metrics across 54 markets. This layered approach removes bias from any single source and ties each claim to measurable indicators.

Why U.S.-centric signals matter for global brands

U.S. omnishopper performance and platform trends often set playbooks for mature retail channels. Social commerce, livestreaming, and in-app conversion data highlight new pathways where discovery, evaluation, and checkout now occur within minutes.

• Balanced use of survey and transaction data to align intent with action.
• Platform metrics (in-app 3x mobile web; AI engines +70% conversion) to show where attention converts.
• Governance and trust measures so your brands scale data-driven programs responsibly.
• Quarterly indicators you can track across markets and channels to monitor real-time changes.

The Consumer Mood in 2026: Confident Behavior, Cautious Wallets

Expect everyday behavior to feel steadier even as wallets stay guarded. Many consumers will act with small boosts in routine buys while avoiding larger, riskier purchases. That blend of optimism and restraint shapes practical choices for your brand.

Volatility as the new normal and what “confidence” really means

Global sentiment remains fragile: 62% report negative views of their economy. Still, U.S. shoppers drove a 4% rise in spending per FMCG trip with flat items per trip. That shows confidence in action, not in big commitments.

Spending intentions: essentials first, discretionary later

Households plan to prioritize utilities, health care, and housing. Out-of-home entertainment and some fresh categories lose share. Expect people to guard budgets and avoid new debt where possible.

Implications for volume-led, not price-led, growth

Your best levers will be reliable value and clear utility. Optimize assortments, push trip-driving packs, and use promotions that build baskets without cutting price to the bone.

• Build trust through predictability and transparent pricing.
• Calibrate forecasts by region and income tier across markets.
• Focus on volume-led strategies to capture steady growth.

consumer shifts 2026: The Five Forces You Need to Watch

Five converging forces will shorten the road from discovery to checkout and change how your teams plan for growth.

Social commerce and creators driving discovery-to-purchase

Social platforms now close the loop from awareness to sale. By 2026, over 17% of online sales will run through social channels and U.S. livestreaming already reached a $50B size.

AI-powered relevance versus rising privacy expectations

AI lifts conversion and add-to-cart rates—recommendations drive +70% conversion and 4.5x add-to-cart. Yet only 41% of consumers say personalization justifies privacy costs, so you must pair relevance with clear control and transparency.

Subscriptions turning purchases into relationships

The subscription economy powers steady growth. With a projected $1.5T scale, subscriptions convert one-off buys into predictable revenue, but you must prove ongoing value to avoid fatigue.

Seamless commerce and retail media redefining the shelf

Seamless commerce removes friction across apps, stores, and delivery. Retail media then ties creator content to closed-loop measurement, giving your brands addressable audiences at the shelf and in-app.

• Takeaway: these trends interlock—speed of execution now equals strategy when you chase growth in this market.

Social Commerce and Creator Influence Rewire Shopping Journeys

Your brand can no longer treat social as only marketing—it’s a commerce channel that closes sales. Platforms now combine discovery, validation, and checkout so you capture demand without the extra clicks.

Over 17% of online sales will happen inside social platforms, and U.S. social commerce is set to top $100B. Livestream formats already reached $50B in the U.S. and are scaling quickly, creating urgency and social proof for fast-moving items.

Creators matter: 63–65% of shoppers say they buy after a recommendation, and nearly half visit a brand site after engaging with creator content. That influence turns trust into measurable action.

• Capture demand where people browse—short, shoppable videos shorten the path to purchase.
• Optimize for in-app behavior: apps convert ~3x better than mobile web, so prioritize native experiences.
• Blend formats: use shoppable video, affiliate links, and livestream drops to drive conversion.
• Measure tightly: clear attribution links creator engagement to add-to-cart and conversion so you can fund what performs.

Make creator-led content part of your retail plan so your offers and pages meet shoppers where they decide. That alignment turns attention into real growth in this market.

AI Personalization and the Privacy Paradox

Smart recommendation engines lift conversion and add-to-cart rates dramatically—but they also raise clear expectations around privacy and control.

AI recommendations can drive up conversion by about +70% and produce 4.5x higher add-to-cart rates. They correlate with meaningful revenue gains: when governed well, personalization delivers roughly +35% purchase frequency and +21% AOV.

Yet only 41% of consumers feel personalization justifies privacy trade-offs, and under 40% believe their data is handled responsibly. That trust gap threatens long-term adoption of this technology.

Build a spine of first- and zero-party data so you survive cookie deprecation and keep real-time decisioning intact.

Governance and practical steps

• Explain the value exchange: tell people what you collect and why it improves their experience.
• Give control: preference centers and easy deletion build trust and richer signals over time.
• Mitigate bias: audit models to align outcomes with your brand and fairness goals.
• Measure commercially: link recommendations to add-to-cart, frequency, and AOV so funding stays performance-led.

Do this and you’ll turn anonymous browsing into curated journeys that respect privacy while lifting purchasing decisions for your customers and strengthening trust with consumers.

The Subscription Economy’s Next Act

The subscription model has matured from novelty to mainstream, demanding smarter bundling and clearer value.

$1.5T scale and the $133-per-month blind spot

The market will reach about $1.5T, yet many consumers underestimate their monthly bills by roughly $133.

That gap explains why 42% pay for services they rarely use. You must surface real usage and clear proof of value to reduce surprise cancellations and justify ongoing spending.

Bundling to beat fatigue

Unify complementary offers under single hubs with one bill. U.S. and APAC shoppers want a single place to manage plans.

This reduces friction, meets demand for simplicity, and lifts perceived value when bundles are curated around real needs.

Creator memberships as stable revenue

Creators already drive paid fan relationships—Patreon and Substack show how membership turns attention into reliable income.

Use exclusives, early access, and behind-the-scenes perks to deepen ties with consumers and lock in predictable revenue streams.

Retention mechanics: proof, cadence, and community

Retention rises when you prove ongoing value, keep a steady engagement cadence, and build community features.

Show usage summaries, offer flexible tiers, and surface “keep or cancel” nudges so you earn loyalty rather than force it.

• Reminder: test pricing and perks iteratively to grow recurring revenue and sustain long-term growth.
• Bundle smartly, emphasize value, and use community to raise retention and reduce churn.
• Design flexible tiers so people can scale up or down without leaving.

Omnichannel Micromoments and Seamless Commerce

Quick, connected touchpoints are turning casual browsing into instant purchases across channels. You must design paths that unite social, search, and store so tiny moments finish with a sale.

From discovery to checkout in minutes across touchpoints

72% of consumers will buy inside social platforms, and 60% want more chances to discover and purchase there. Connect those micro-moments so a scroll becomes a checkout without friction.

Blended experiences: AR try-ons, BOPIS, and showrooming

Use AR try-ons and 3D previews to boost confidence and cut returns. Make BOPIS and curbside seamless so in-store showrooming leads directly to fulfillment and higher conversion.

Same-day delivery and BNPL reshaping category choices

Retailers offering same-day delivery attract far more consumers. BNPL adoption now swells baskets in price-sensitive categories without heavy discounting.

• Do this: build channel-agnostic carts and persistent sessions so your customer moves devices without losing progress.
• Keep real-time inventory and slotting accurate across BOPIS and delivery windows.
• Measure micro-journey completion rates to find and remove the biggest drop-offs.

Retail Media Networks and New Growth Engines

Retailers now offer media capabilities that fuse convenience, personalization, and loyalty into measurable outcomes. This changes how you plan growth—retail becomes both channel and publisher.

Treat retailers as full-funnel media partners. Use their audience data and on-site context to meet buyers at decision points. That means retailer-level creative, offers aligned to category searches, and loyalty hooks that nudge repeat trips.

Connecting creator content to in-app and in-aisle conversion

Activate creator content inside retail media so inspiration converts in the same session. Nearly half the consumers visit a brand site after creator engagement, so embed shoppable clips and promo codes in-app and on shelf displays.

Measurement must-haves: incrementality and closed-loop proof

Prove net-new sales. Prioritize incrementality testing and closed-loop attribution to show that ads add incremental lift, not just redirect organic demand.

• Build retailer-specific creative that maps to on-site search behavior.
• Use loyalty and CRM hooks to personalize offers and drive repeat trips.
• Standardize performance readouts across networks to compare ROAS, lift, and household penetration.

Do this and your brands will turn retail media into a reliable growth engine that links creator-led engagement to measurable purchase outcomes.

Value, Private Label, and Pricing Realities

Shoppers are done with headline discounts; they now reward clarity in price and purpose.

NIQ data shows the pricing playbook is over: global FMCG value sales rose 3.5% while volume grew just 0.9%. That gap means you must drive trips and baskets, not rely on rising tags.

Price fatigue: growth pivots to trips, baskets, and sharper assortments

You’ll win more visits with clear value ladders and purposeful pack architecture.

Refine assortments by store and mission to highlight the products that meet real demand.

Private label as a loyalty lever and value signal

Private label is no longer only cheap. It now anchors your value promise and strengthens loyalty.

National brands must prove meaningful differentiation to hold share as retailers lean into owned lines.

• Use price transparency and steady everyday pricing to rebuild trust.
• Test value bundles that boost attach rates and pantry-building, not blanket discounts.
• Align innovation with affordability and function where reformulation is needed.

The Generational Power Shift Accelerating Through 2026

A new cohort of buyers is rewriting the playbook for authenticity, digital-first experiences, and purpose.

Gen Z and Millennials lead with values, creators, and platforms when they shop. Sixty-nine percent of consumers prefer brands tied to social causes, and 60% will pay more for sustainable products when the benefits are clear.

Gen Z and Millennials: digital-first, values-driven, experience-led

You’ll tailor offers for digital-first shoppers who prize authenticity and experiences. Focus on community, quick on-ramps from discovery to ownership, and perks that fit lifestyles.

Influencer sway and willingness to pay for sustainability

Creator influence is real: 65% have bought creator-founded products and 27% say they prefer creators over traditional brands. That influence changes purchasing decisions and boosts conversion when stories are transparent.

Wealth transfer tailwinds and the limits of broad cohorts

Prepare for a massive wealth transfer that fuels subscriptions, premium experiences, and digital goods. But avoid broad labels—segment by behavior and micro-communities to find real signal across markets.

• Do this: proof sustainability claims, map creator paths to checkout, and build identity-driven retention to sustain growth.

Wellness-at-Home and Health Tech Gain Momentum

Home-based wellness and health technology are moving from niche to mainstream as prevention becomes a clearer priority.

Mental wellness apps and sleep devices are scaling rapidly. Apps are projected to reach $17.5B by 2030 and sleep tech to $68.8B by 2032. That growth creates room for new products and services that meet daily needs at home.

Nearly half of spa-goers now combine in-spa visits with at-home routines. Availability gaps in clinics push more people to adopt connected tools and guided programs you can sell through retail and subscription channels.

Mental wellness apps and sleep tech scale as prevention wins

These tools make prevention practical. Risk algorithms using EMR data have cut injurious falls by about 40% in pilots, showing how tech + data can improve outcomes.

Hybrid wellness: in-spa plus at-home ecosystems

You’ll meet rising prevention demand by packaging products with coaching, content, and community. Hybrid models—book a treatment, then sustain progress at home—raise lifetime value and adherence.

• Do this: bundle devices and products with guided programs to boost retention.
• Build trust: state clear claims and protect personal health data with strong integrations.
• Sell smart: use retail and subscription channels to create steady touchpoints rather than one-off purchases.

For more context on broader patterns and key market signals, see key market signals.

Your 2026 Data Playbook: From Insights to Execution

Start with a practical spine for data so insights move quickly from analysis to in-market action.

Build a first- and zero-party architecture anchored in a CDP paired with generative AI. That combo creates real-time audiences and next-best actions so teams can act fast.

Why it matters: firms using first-party approaches saw acquisition costs improve by 83%, satisfaction rise 78%, and conversion lift 73%.

• Transparency UX: include clear permissions, preference centers, and short value statements at each data touchpoint to earn trust.
• Operationalize personalization: run consistent experiences across ads, site, app, store, and service so the customer handoff feels seamless.
• Governance & measurement: set rules for fairness and brand voice, and instrument closed-loop tests that prove lifts in frequency and AOV (+35% and +21% with governed AI).

Finally, train teams and share playbooks with retail partners so your brands turn insight into repeatable growth.

Conclusion

What matters most is turning micro-moments into measurable growth across social, app, and store.

You’re entering a new retail landscape where discovery and conversion meet in seconds. Balance the power of AI and creators with clear trust and a simple value exchange so your offers win attention and repeat business.

Test quickly: use small experiments to prove demand, optimize delivery, and tune loyalty mechanics that convert shoppers into customers.

Align teams around incrementality, frequency, and basket metrics. For broader context on consumer behavior patterns and practical signals, see consumer behavior trends.

Do this well and your brands will capture share, earn trust, and turn short wins into lasting growth.